Case file · Series 23, Episode 1
The Blacktrees Prophecy
A false missile warning sends a survivalist into his bunker, where the apocalypse fails to arrive but murder does.
The 60-second case card
Should I watch this one?
A prepper community built to survive global catastrophe proves much less prepared for mistrust inside its own village.
- Best for
- Doomsday preppers · Village prophecy · Bunker
- Mood
- Eccentric
- Team
- DCI John Barnaby with DS Jamie Winter
- Spoiler guidance
- Read the premise freely; open the marked sections only after watching. This is not a complete content advisory.
Why it matters
A prepper community built to survive global catastrophe proves much less prepared for mistrust inside its own village.
A false missile warning sends a survivalist into his bunker, where the apocalypse fails to arrive but murder does.
The Blacktrees Prophecy has shaped local folklore for generations, and Warren Kaine treats it as a practical warning rather than a story. When a hoax alert reports incoming missiles, he races to his bombproof shelter—only to be found dead when his wife arrives to tell him the threat was false.
Insurance, affairs and the membership of the prepper group offer immediate motives. Further deaths make the wording of the prophecy feel increasingly deliberate, while Barnaby and Winter follow a hidden family connection and an older drowning rather than accepting the apparent curse.
Break the seal: reveal the finding
The staged warning, insurance decisions and later deaths conceal a question of parentage rooted in an earlier drowning and the photograph that helps Barnaby reconstruct it.
Open the full research dossierProduction, cast, forensics, deaths and filming evidence
Credits, context and checked facts
The episode file
- TV series
- Series 23
- Episode number
- Episode 1
- Written by
- Jeff Povey
- Directed by
- Roberto Bangura
- Listed transmission date(s)
- 12 December 2022 14 April 2024
- Reported filming period
- March–April 2022
- Detective
- DCI John Barnaby
- Partner
- DS Jamie Winter
- Pathologist
- Dr Fleur Perkins · Annette Badland
- Principal setting
- Blacktrees-on-Marsh
- Casebook tone
- Eccentric
Check the credits, then follow the source trail for production and filming details. Counts below describe this archive’s records.
The fictional setting and the real filming sites are separate pieces of information. The exact-site desk has been checked, but the current published reference does not identify a reliable building match for this episode.
Credits and archive connections
- Writer ledger8 episodes credited to Jeff Povey
- Director ledger4 episodes directed by Roberto Bangura
- Release positionCase 133 of 144
- Story characterEccentric · Doomsday preppers · Village prophecy
- Location evidenceChecked · published source gap
The episode builds its village institution around survivalism: weekly meetings, emergency plans and Warren's private bunker all become part of the mystery.
The current filming-location reference marks this episode's real-world sites as missing, so the Casebook does not guess at the bunker or village exteriors.
Sources for the production file
Published episode chronology and credits ↗Official ITV programme page ↗Filming-location reference index ↗The chronology is the reference for the credits shown here. A programme homepage does not independently verify a filming date or every production detail. Where multiple transmission dates are listed, territory attribution needs checking. Story, teleplay and adaptation distinctions require the original credit wording; links to external synopses may reveal plot details.
Selected episode credits
Guest cast on file
Selected profiles and published cast-list entries. Database records are linked individually; this is not a full transcription or an independent check against the end credits.
Holly Aird
Published cast record ↗Nina Wadia
Published cast record ↗Sonita Henry
Published cast record ↗Pal Aron
Published cast record ↗Kate Robbins
Published cast record ↗The performers behind this case
Core cast
Actor profiles for the detective, investigating partner and pathologist credited to this episode.
Neil Dudgeon
John Barnaby · Detective Chief InspectorAn English actor whose television work before Causton included Piece of Cake, The Mrs Bradley Mysteries, Messiah and the sitcom Life of Riley. He also appeared in Midsomer Murders years earlier as a different character in Garden of Death.
- Messiah
- Life of Riley
- The Mrs Bradley Mysteries
Nick Hendrix
Jamie Winter · Detective SergeantAn English actor trained at the University of Exeter and RADA. His theatre work includes the National Theatre, Old Vic and West End, while his screen credits include Black Mirror, Marcella, The Crown, Legend and Suffragette.
- Black Mirror
- Marcella
- The Crown
Annette Badland
Dr Fleur Perkins · Police pathologistAn award-winning English actor with an extensive career in theatre, television, film and radio. Her many recognisable roles include Doctor Who, EastEnders, Outlander, Bergerac and pub landlady Mae in Ted Lasso.
- Ted Lasso
- Doctor Who
- EastEnders
Portraits are used only where a reusable licence or public-domain release has been verified. Publicity stills and stock photographs are not copied into this independent guide.
Forensic desk
Dr Fleur Perkins
- Credit
- Resident pathologist
- Played by
- Annette Badland
Fleur pairs forensic certainty with dry humour and a magnificently low tolerance for Midsomer nonsense.
Meet the Casebook pathologists →Spoiler-controlled deaths desk
Deaths recorded in this case
4 source rows represent 4 people in the current ledger.
Break the seal: reveal the death ledger
- Warren Kaine
Murder · Other recorded death
- Guy Burrows
Murder · Vehicle or machinery
- Randall Salt
Murder · Other recorded death
- Unnamed young woman
Accidental, natural or other · Drowning · historical or before the main case
Real place → fictional identity
What was filmed where?
The current episode-by-episode filming reference marks this episode's location information as still missing.
Building identities are cross-checked against the Casebook's published filming-location references. A named match describes the part used on screen, not the whole village and not necessarily an interior.
Wider filming areas
Places connected to this file
No real-place link is published here until it can be tied to a specific, sourced screen use.